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Thread: Tirelessly updating Avalon on the El Hierro eruption.

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    Avalon Member ViralSpiral's Avatar
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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    9627 events (tremors + EQs) and counting... last shown on the graphs at this moment is the 3.6

    Also... this thread passed the 26,000 viewers mark... thanks for visiting!





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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Strongest for the day: 3.8-3.7-3.2-3.6-3.4 from 22:00 to 23:00 :



    For the day:


    Click image for larger version

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    Click image for larger version

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    Edit: Moved auto-updating graphs to post below.
    Last edited by Hervé; 8th October 2011 at 02:26.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    ING map which includes the last earthquake on the island
    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 7/10/2011
    HOURS UNTIL 6:44 THIS FRIDAY

    El Hierro counted 30 earthquakes on Friday, the largest of magnitude 3.6


    The island of El Hierro has recorded up to 6:31 GMT (7:31 hours canaria), this Friday, October 7, a total of 30 earthquakes of between 1.6 and 3.6 magnitude on the Richter scale, according the last update of the National Geographic Institute (IGN).


    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (10.7.2011. Update at 08:30 pm)
    The island of El Hierro has recorded up to 6:31 GMT (7:31 hours canaria), this Friday, October 7, a total of 30 earthquakes of between 1.6 and 3.6 magnitude on the Richter scale, according the last update of the National Geographic Institute (IGN).

    According to the National Geographic Institute (IGN) collected by DAILY IRON, two quakes have exceeded magnitude 3, but IGN has not yrt collected any testimony that it has been felt by the population.

    The first tremors of 3.1 magnitude, occurred at 2:19 GMT (03:19 hours canaria) in the area of ​​the Sea of ​​Calm at a depth of 11 kilometers.

    The second earthquake, of 3.6 magnitude on the Richter scale was detected at 02:30 GMT (03:30 hours canaria), also in the south of the island and 14 km deep. In both cases, IGN has no record that it has been felt by the population of El Hierro.

    From 00:09 GMT (1:09 hours canaria), until 6:31 GMT (7:31 hours canaria), have detected a total of 30 earthquakes in the island of El Hierro, all located in the El Julan-Sea of calms and between 9 and 20 kilometers deep.

    The last earthquake which includes the IGN after the latest update to its website, of 2.6 magnitude on the Richter scale, occurred at 7:34 hours canaria, in the south of the island and 15 kilometers deep.

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  7. Link to Post #724
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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    Juan Carlos Carracedo

    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 7/10/2011

    Carracedo:''If there is no new magma injection, it will end up cooling down'' [at depth].

    The renowned volcanologist estimated that the lava running through the bowels of the island of El Hierro, ''has all the earmarks of being parked without coming to the surface and cause an eruption.''


    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (10/07/2011)
    Volcanologist, Juan Carlos Carracedo, notes that "the magma is forming a mushroom head, so if there is no new injections, it will settle without breaking the cooled crust." Carracedo, speaking to the Canarias 7 newspaper, added that the magma "has all the earmarks of being parked without coming to the surface and cause an eruption."

    The volcanologist said that's the conclusion he's left with after analyzing the parameters recorded by the teams from IGN doing a thorough and detailed monitoring of the seismic crisis, although the whole process, until the termination of the episode, may take months, he said.

    "You can not yet speak of volcanic episode until it hits the surface," he inferred. Carracero added that "the current crisis is being managed better than in 2004 in Tenerife, but to manage better than then is very easy, because that was an absolute disaster," he said.

    The director of the IGN in the Canaries, María José Blanco, as reported by Canarias 7, said the geological indicators remain "with the same patterns and identical scenarios" in the north and south of the island of El Hierro, especially in the Sea of ​​Calm "with a branch that is close to La Restinga." "The ground deformation has not changed and is remaining around 40 millimeters," noted Blanco.

    For his part, head of seismology at IGN Tenerife, Manuel Moreno, said that "the situation is practically the same, but a little more steady." Earthquakes, individually, are located south, about four kilometers west of La Restinga, "hence they are less felt by the population," he concluded

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Strongest for the day: 4.3 at 20:34:
    Edit: Upgraded to 4.4 (Oct. 9)
    Edit: Downgraded to 4.0 (Oct.10)




    For the day:




    Bumped auto-updating graphs to top of next page.


    Last edited by Hervé; 10th October 2011 at 07:54.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 7/10/2011
    EARTHQUAKE 4 or 4.5-magnitude MAY OCCUR

    Scientists do not guarantee that the tunnel can support an earthquake of magnitude 4

    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (10/07/2011)
    The Minister of Safety and Emergency Cabildo de El Hierro, Maria del Carmen Morales, confirmed Friday to the DAILY IRON that the Roquille tunnel will be closed to traffic, ''because scientists do not guarantee that the structure can support an earthquake of magnitude 4 or 4.5, which could occur in the coming days,'' said the counselor.

    "We do not know how much the tunnel can endure , because scientists do not know this information, we can not reopen to traffic because we could have a problem when an earthquake occurs," said the counselor.

    Also, Maria del Carmen Morales added, "the other side is that the technicians who have come from IGME believe there are risks of slides now or later, when it rains; because there are many loose rocks as noted in their reports," stressed the minister and, "based on these reports, the Canary Islands Government, for safety reasons, has decided to keep the tunnel closed," she said.

    Morales has imparted, however, that since the closure, all involved including the Cabildo de El Hierro have done everything possible to try to find solutions to this problem, but scientists still insist that the problem is an earthquake of a significant magnitude and we do not know what can be allowed inside the tunnel, that is not a safe way; she added that "these same movements cause landslides on the slopes, not only at La Frontera but elsewhere," she said.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 7/10/2011
    SEPTEMBER 30 TO OCTOBER 6

    El Hierro sum ​​858 earthquakes in the last week, mostly at sea

    During this period, 60 events have been felt, as reported by the Directorate General of Security and Emergency Canary Islands Government.


    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (10/07/2011)
    The 24 hours volcano monitoring network monitoring of National Geographic Institute (IGN), has recorded in the last week - from September 30 to October 6 - a total of 858 earthquakes, most of them in the sea southwest of the island.

    During this period, 60 events have been felt, as reported by the Directorate General of Security and Emergency Canary Islands Government. Also on Thursday, 8 earthquakes were felt in El Hierro, 5 of them of magnitude greater or equal to 3.0 on the Richter scale.

    Since last July 17, IGN has registered and located 9639 earthquakes, with epicenters both north and south of the NW ridge and depths between 10 and 15 km. The number of events felt by the population is 114, with intensities II, III and IV in the EMS-98 scale.

    The greater magnitude recorded reached a value of 3.8 on the Richter scale. This magmatic phenomenon is accompanied by surface deformations, which so far have not exceeded 40mm [less than 2"].

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    As for landslides, some don't even need any earthquake:


    Caught on camera at North CliffS, Cornwall, Britain.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    In *no* way suggesting this is about to happen ... but found this to be of interest.

    Quote Scientific paper reveals massive historic Tenerife volcano flank collapse

    Last update: October 6, 2011 at 10:57 am by By Armand Vervaeck

    Written by Dave Petley

    Dave Petley is the Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham University in the United Kingdom. His blog provides a commentary on landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.

    This post provides a brief review of a new paper that describes a newly discovered catastrophic landslide deposit in Tenerife.

    One of the most intriguing but poorly understood landslide types is that of the volcanic flank collapse. In a volcanic flank collapse, the side of a volcano fails, usually catastrophically, generating a landslide. These slides can be really big – tens or even hundreds of cubic kilometers – and they can travel huge distances along the sea floor. Such failures grabbed attention a few years ago due to the potential (overstated, in my opinion) for generating a catastrophic tsunami.

    However, we understand such phenomena really poorly. There are a number of reasons for this, principally that:

    a. They occur rarely (globally about one in every 25 years on average), so actually recording one is a challenge

    b. the remains tend to lie in a very dispersed state on the floor of the deep ocean. Fieldwork at 4 km water depth remains difficult, even if you are really good at holding your breath.

    However, it is one particular aspect of these landslides that remains elusive, but is crucially important. This is the trigger of the collapse event (i.e. of the landslide itself). Numerous mechanisms have been proposed, including sea level change, climate change, hydrothermal pressure, intrusion of volcanic material, and various others. It has proven very difficult to ascertain the importance of each of these. This is an important question if we are to reliably estimate the hazard associated with future potential collapses.

    In a paper published in Geology this month, Harris et al. 2011 report a very interesting find on the island of Tenerife, one of the Canary Islands. This is the remains of an ancient collapse event on the south-eastern part of Cañadas volcano. The landslide deposit, which is up to 50 metres thick, has been mapped across a large area – 90 square kilometres – and this is just the onshore component of the mass, which may extend another 50 km offshore. The deposit consists of a classic debris avalanche material, with large (typically up to 12 m long axis), shattered blocks in a highly disrupted, unsorted matrix. This is typical of a highly energetic, very large collapse event. Intriguingly, in the upper part of the deposit some fluviolacustrine (water/lake) sediments are found in the remains of hollows, indicating that in the aftermath of the landslide shallow lakes formed on the surface, presumably as a result of blockages created by the landslide. Associated with the landslide deposit are the remains of pyroclastic flows.

    This is really interesting in itself, but the very well-preserved deposit allows both highly precise dating and a reconstruction of the events that occurred. The dating yields a date of about 733,000 years ago, with an error of just 3,000 years. So, the sequence of events is interpreted as being:

    - An eruption event, termed the Helecho eruption started in the form of an explosive event that showered ash and then pyroclastic material across the local area;

    - A dome grew on the volcano;

    - This dome collapsed catastrophically, generating a landslide that travelled 17 km to the shoreline, and then probably much further in the ocean;

    - Subsequent eruptions draped further pyroclastic, and then pumice, deposits on the surface of the landslide, and rainwater collected in hummocks to form small lakes;

    So, in this case the volcanic flank collapse was triggered by a large, explosive volcanic eruption. Interestingly, the authors note that the landslide collapse left a gap in the rim of the caldera which subsequently channeled pyroclastic deposits to the south-east.

    Of course this paper does not solve the question of what triggers volcanic flank collapses, but it is an important data point that validates one of the most likely mechanisms. It also provides a great opportunity to study these landslides in detail, which should give us a much greater insight into the dynamics of these immense mass movements.

    Reference
    Harris, P.D, Branney, M.J., & Storey, M. (2011). Large eruption-triggered ocean-island landslide at Tenerife: Onshore record and long-term effects on hazardous pyroclastic dispersal Geology, 39 (10), 951-954 : 10.1130/G31994.1

    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10...lank-collapse/

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Thanks Calz, good find!

    Glad to see he is also of the opinion that the generation of a "megatsunami" is an exageration.

    However, what bugs me is this:


    Quote
    Quote [...]
    So, in this case the volcanic flank collapse was triggered by a large, explosive volcanic eruption.

    [...]
    ??????????
    Quote Of course this paper does not solve the question of what triggers volcanic flank collapses...

    [...]
    ... For it seems that at least in the case of Tenerife, these researchers established it was an explosive eruption, whereas for El Hierro the collapses appeared to be connected to ice age endings (see post #655)... I guess I just answered my own question...

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Surface bulging (in millimeters):



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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    IGN map where you can see the area where the magnitude 4.3 quake was recorded.



    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 08/10/2011 (22:22 hours. Update at 23:30 pm)
    THIS IS THE GREATEST MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE REGISTERED SO FAR


    El Hierro recorded an earthquake of 4.3 magnitude widely felt by the population


    The quake occurred at 20:34 GMT (21:34 hours Canary Islands) on Saturday in the southwest of El Pinar at a depth of 13 kilometers. This Saturday, El Hierro has registered a total of 52 earthquakes of between 1.5 and 4.3 magnitude on the Richter scale.


    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES (08.10.2011. 22:22 horas.Información updated at 23:30 pm)
    The National Geographic Institute (IGN) has recorded at 20:34 hours GMT (21:34 hours canaria) an earthquake of 4.3 magnitude on the Richter scale, the biggest shock of those produced so far on the island of El Iron from the seismic crisis began on 17 July. The quake was widely felt in several population centers of the island.

    Although initially it was rated as a 4.4 magnitude earthquake (as collected by DAILY IRON from the IGN published data ), at the last update of the Institute's Web page, it was lowered to a 4.3 magnitude on the Richter scale and III intensity scale EMS 98.

    According to the National Geographic Institute (IGN), as gathered by DAILY IRON and could be subject to change, the tremor occurred southwest of El Pinar and 13 kilometers deep.

    In this earthquake, the largest magnitude of those produced on the island until now, there are two earthquakes felt by the population El Hierro this Saturday, October 8. The first, of 3.5 magnitude on the Richter scale, occurred at 08:00 GMT (09:00 hours canaria), also in the southwest of El Pinar and 16 kilometers deep.

    This Saturday, El Hierro has registered a total of 52 earthquakes of between 1.5 and 4.3 magnitude on the Richter scale.
    Last edited by Hervé; 9th October 2011 at 13:33.

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  25. Link to Post #733
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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    9898 events (tremors + EQs) and counting... last shown on the graphs at this moment is the 4.3 (downgraded to 4.0 on Oct. 10)

    Also... this thread passed the 27,000 viewers mark... thanks for visiting!





    thank you.......
    Last edited by Hervé; 10th October 2011 at 07:57.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    RSOE EDIS seems out to lunch as far as the 4.3 EQ location goes:


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    Last edited by Hervé; 9th October 2011 at 15:42.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Current hour:





    For the day:



    Moved graphs to top of next page
    Last edited by Hervé; 9th October 2011 at 07:42.

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  31. Link to Post #736
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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog


    La Restinga

    SEISMIC CRISIS SPECIAL - 08/10/2011 (08:54 pm)
    THIS SATURDAY are already accounted for 40 EARTHQUAKES

    El Hierro is still shaking and fear earthquakes above magnitude 4


    Only for Friday, 7 earthquakes were felt, tremors have now moved to the southwest of El Pinar. La Restinga gets increasingly stronger shocks which are felt, as reported to DAILY IRON by locals.


    DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (10.8.2011. 8:54 pm. Update at 09:20 pm)
    Seismic activity on the island of El Hierro is relentless. Since the beginning of the seismic crisis, on July 17, the bowels of the Isla del Meridiano are shaking nonstop. The inhabitants of cities, like La Restinga, El Golfo or El Pinar, suffer daily earthquakes that make their homes shake , a situation that's increasingly uneasy and being looked at with the fear of a possible increase in the magnitude of earthquakes.

    In the village of La Restinga alone, the inhabitants perception is that earthquakes are becoming more intense and last longer as the DAILY IRON was told by local residents that on Friday night and early hours of Saturday, October 8; the village has been incessantly shaken by earthquakes.

    The magma is now located in the southwest of El Pinar, and it seems to be more on the land near the sea, where it is located so far (as seen in the maps themselves the National Geographic Institute). However, earthquakes continue to be detected at more than 10 kilometers deep.

    According to the National Geographic Institute (IGN) as gathered by DAILY IRON and subject to change, for Friday, October 7, the southwest of El Pinar had a total of eight earthquakes that were felt, between 2.5 and 3.6 degrees magnitude on the Richter scale and between 11 and 17 kilometers deep.

    Also, IGN recorded on Friday, earthquakes with intensities I, II and III in the EMS98 scale. These movements, which were not reported as felt, were of 3.1, 3.6, 2.6, 2.8 and 2.9 magnitude on the Richter scale.

    40 EARTHQUAKES THIS SATURDAY

    According to the IGN polled by DAILY IRON, until 5:47 GMT (6:47 hours canaria), the southwest of El Pinar has been shaken by 40 earthquakes of between 1.7 and 3.2 magnitude on the Richter scale and at depths ranging between 11 and 16 kilometers.

    That is, the island of El Hierro is still disturbed by incessant tremors that could increase in magnitude (up to 4.5 degrees) as early as this Friday according to Cabildo de El Hierro's own Minister of Safety and Emergency , Maria del Carmen Morales.

    Meanwhile, the inhabitants of El Hierro have no choice but to learn to live with earthquakes, as if they were part of their lives.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Found this very interesting new video...

    Unity Consciousness
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Free your mind, and open your heart to LOVE.
    You'll then become enlightened able to just BE.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Quote Posted by randles (here)
    YOU are wonderful !!!
    Take care my friend...
    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Glad to see that Polly is taking longer siestas between ascensions....
    Thanks! Same to you!

    I was starting to feel weird not being watched anymore....
    I was watching, I just had work and study. Good going, Zo.

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    Quote Posted by truthseekerdan (here)
    Found this very interesting new video...
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=dzz0quFN0wo
    Interesting, eh?

    Dan, it would help to read the thread before posting... there are enough doom & gloom propaganda threads about this subject already going.

    Anyway, the fellow talking to Deagle in your posted video is John Moore, and as stated earlier on this thread:

    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Quote Posted by Muzz (here)
    Hi randles

    If you havent already seen it check this thread out.
    Hi Muzz!

    See, this is what we are trying to disentangle and clarify here:

    Quote "Most urgent is John Moore's report from his contact that a volcano
    on the Canary Islands is about to erupt in about seven to ten days.
    Geologists agree that if the Cumbre Vieja volcano erupts, its resulting
    landslide will surely generate a tsunami that will kill many millions
    of people along the East Coast of the Americas, from Canada, down
    over the United States, the Caribbean Islands, and down through
    Central and South America."
    John Moore is a good guy but he has got his data completely confused: the volcano that may erupt is El Hierro, not the Cumbre Vieja. With the switcheroo, there goes switching from El Hierro to Cumbre Vieja...


    Then, even with the Cumbre Vieja, there is the matter of how fast a slide of its flank can take place... anything more than instant and there goes the doom & gloom propaganda down the drain!

    Simply because the catastrophic model used wouldn't work anymore if the slide takes an hour or more to complete.

    Even if Cumbre Vieja erupts as it did very recently -- without one of its flanks sliding more than 4 meters; that is, like a house, it settled better on its foundations -- a full slide is not a necessary result.

    One can go down very dark rabbit holes with "ifs," but what's the actual reality?

    That's what we are attempting to establish in this thread.
    Quote Posted by Amzer Zo (here)
    Always, always, always... follow the @#&%^! money:

    Quote When the original research was published in 2001 [two geologists (Day and McGuire) hypothesised that during a future eruption, the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja, with a mass of approximately 1.5 x1015 kg, could slide into the ocean. This could then potentially generate a giant wave which they termed a “megatsunami” around 650–900 m high in the region of the islands], the Spanish press and scientists were heavily critical of the way it was reported. El País noted that the research group was entirely funded by an insurance company, something entirely ignored by the British press.

    ". it is hypothetical and moreover improbable, and the model would not have passed the stage of an elegant theoretical exercise if the authors had not spent a week publically airing it before publishing it tomorrow in a specialised journal. Why so much interest in publicising it? The explanation perhaps lies in the fact that the research centre is funded by an insurance company, concerned with natural catastrophes ".
    Thanks to Stegosaur for discovering the article the above is excerpted from: http://www.iberianature.com/material/megatsunami.html

    Said article where I found I am not alone in my assessment of Cumbre Vieja:

    Quote Latest from BBC 29 October 2004
    Tidal wave threat 'over-hyped'
    The risk of a landslide in the Canary Islands causing a tidal wave (tsunami) able to devastate America's east coast is vastly overstated.

    That is the view of marine geologists studying ancient landslides in the area.
    In typical Canary Island landslides, chunks of land break off in bits, not in one dramatic plunge, they argue.

    This contradicts previous warnings that an Isle of Man-sized chunk of land could fall off the island of La Palma into the sea, causing a mega-tsunami.
    Full article here
    Quote Posted by Operator (here)
    B.t.w. John Moore can be hired as a consultant on disaster prevention. He changed the title from

    Global Warming: What The Government Isn't Telling You
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=drRMw_e9pN4

    to

    Planet-x what the Government is not telling you[Guest John Moore.wmv
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=crU9sM5QTUk

    So maybe he has to make first his own mind up before he tells others what to think ....
    Quote Posted by Calz_Avaretard (here)
    In *no* way suggesting this is about to happen ... but found this to be of interest.

    Quote Scientific paper reveals massive historic Tenerife volcano flank collapse

    Last update: October 6, 2011 at 10:57 am by By Armand Vervaeck

    Written by Dave Petley

    Dave Petley is the Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham University in the United Kingdom. His blog provides a commentary on landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.

    This post provides a brief review of a new paper that describes a newly discovered catastrophic landslide deposit in Tenerife.

    One of the most intriguing but poorly understood landslide types is that of the volcanic flank collapse. In a volcanic flank collapse, the side of a volcano fails, usually catastrophically, generating a landslide. These slides can be really big – tens or even hundreds of cubic kilometers – and they can travel huge distances along the sea floor. Such failures grabbed attention a few years ago due to the potential (overstated, in my opinion) for generating a catastrophic tsunami.

    [...]

    Reference
    Harris, P.D, Branney, M.J., & Storey, M. (2011). Large eruption-triggered ocean-island landslide at Tenerife: Onshore record and long-term effects on hazardous pyroclastic dispersal Geology, 39 (10), 951-954 : 10.1130/G31994.1

    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10...lank-collapse/

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    Default Re: After tirelessly updating Avalon for weeks...it's official, evacuation is in prog

    That's quite a hiccup Polly had in between long snoozes...

    The cumulative graph, as its scale keeps being confined to the alloted frame of the picture, will only show significant gaps/jumps in energy release with EQs ≥ 3.5.

    Lower magnitude EQs just get telescoped together in the serpentine track.


    Click image for larger version

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    The jump in energy released is due to a 4.4 EQ
    Last edited by Hervé; 9th October 2011 at 18:22.

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