WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[Vicus]

Ukrainian commander laments state of army – El Pais 24 Apr, 2023

Kiev needs up to six times more troops and firepower than Russia for its counteroffensive to succeed, General Sergey Melnik says

Kiev needs more troops, ammunition and equipment to continue its military conflict with Moscow, Ukrainian Brigadier General Sergey Melnik told Spain’s El Pais in an interview published on Monday. Ukraine has already lost most of its professional soldiers as the conflict drags on, he admitted.

“The problem is that we have a lack of people and equipment,” said the general, who commands troops near the Russian border in Kharkov Region. “Professional soldiers… are already exhausted, injured or recovering. Or… dead,” he added.

Melnik said Kiev is now relying on “people without military experience,” who first need to be trained and have an “adequate [level of] preparation to face the enemy.” According to El Pais, the general also “stressed several times during the interview” that Ukraine needs more air-defense systems, citing the threat posed by Russian aircraft.

He also admitted that Kiev’s forces would need to gain massive superiority in manpower and firepower if they are to have any hope of succeeding with a planned counteroffensive. Ukraine will need “four to six times” as many troops as Moscow has fielded in its ongoing military campaign if it is to break through the defenses built by the Russian forces in their current positions, he told El Pais.



https://www.rt.com/russia/575278-ukr...nt-state-army/

[Vicus]

BREAKDOWN: What is known about the status of Ukraine’s much-hyped ‘counteroffensive’ against Russia? 25 Apr, 2023

The West has pumped Kiev with modern armaments and trained tens of thousands of its troops

How ready is the Ukrainian army for a counter-offensive?
So far, Ukraine’s planned military assault, originally announced for November 2022, has been postponed indefinitely. Foreign sources differ in their assessment of Kiev’s readiness for a counterattack against Russia and agree that it is difficult for the Ukrainians to gather enough forces.

What is stopping the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) from advancing now?
One of the main problems preventing the AFU from carrying out the announced offensive is considered to be a lack of experienced personnel.

A large portion of the combat-ready, equipped and motivated cadre units of the AFU (as well as the NGU and Territorial Defense) have already been destroyed in Mariupol, Artemovsk, Soledar, Popasnaya, Lisichansk, Severodonetsk and during the battles in the Kherson and Kharkov regions in the summer of 2022. Meanwhile, a new grouping of equal professionalism and equipment levels has not yet been formed. However, NATO and US officials differ in their estimates of the number of AFU formations.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after the Rammstein Contact Group meeting earlier this year that Western countries had managed to prepare nine armored brigades. This figure is questionable, however, as at least 837 tanks would be needed for that size of a deployment. After Rammstein, Austin reported deliveries of 230 battle tanks, suggesting a deliberate misrepresentation of the size of the Ukrainian group.

How many reserves has the AFU built up?
Michel Goya, a French army colonel and renowned expert on modern warfare and combat innovation estimates that no more than three or four Ukrainian brigades could realistically be trained and armed by NATO and the US in the time frame allowed.

At the same time, the recently popular estimate that Ukraine had assembled 200,000 reservists looks doubtful, since in this case the AFU forces would have to exceed the combined US and NATO forces at the time of the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by 30,000-40,000 (at that time it was 160,000). The most likely figure is 80,000-100,000, which have been trained both inside and outside Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s military operation. There is an important caveat, however. Apart from the combat experience and capabilities of the grouping, it is not clear which forces are the combat-ready vanguard and which are support units (the so-called "tooth-to-tail" ratio). If the AFU is planning an offensive like the US in Iraq, only 20,000 of the 100,000 troops assembled are actually combat-ready, the rest are support and sustainment forces.

What difficulties does the AFU face?
The conceptual problem of the offensive is the lack of surprise. AFU units are awaited from all directions – from Artemovsk to Kherson, so it is extremely difficult to surprise Russian forces in such a situation. Moreover, the movements of the Ukrainian army are well monitored, and it is almost impossible to accumulate a group of 20,000-150,000 troops unnoticed in such conditions. If they abandon massing their soldiers, and spread the forces across the front, all the advantages of large numbers are lost.

An additional difficulty is time. Delaying an offensive means not only guaranteeing the loss of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, which is being cleared at the rate of two or three blocks every 24 hours, but also disrupting the plans of foreign partners and nullifying all the financial and military aid provided so far. Moreover, every day that the AFU's offensive is delayed is an extra day for the Russian army to prepare and reinforce.

Another difficulty is the offensive reserves. Troops for an attack are divided into two types: vanguards and reserves, which are deployed at the point of the front where a breakthrough is planned. If the ground forces of the AFU are prepared for this, then the strength of any grouping in any direction can be safely divided by two. If the first wave of the AFU offensive falters, there may be no chance of a second. Repair battalions and a significant amount of reserve equipment must be ready for the offensive – this is impossible, given the total dependence on imports from the West.

Slow delivery of foreign equipment is also an issue. Although Bradley BMPs and Leopard 2 tanks are already in Ukraine, the amount of equipment is only enough to equip one or two mechanized brigades (6,000-7,000 men). The rest will receive light armored vehicles whose survivability in a high-intensity conflict is minimal.

Further, deliveries of Western air defense systems, essential to any major offensive, are either severely delayed, only arriving in the form of Stinger and Starstreak man-portable air defense systems, or in the form of short-range SAMs such as the Avenger and Stormer HMVs.

The main technical difficulty is the lack of significant numbers of attack aircraft and air superiority. Yes, the Ukrainian air defense system is still in place and functioning, but the stationary air defense systems are getting worse at dealing with missile attacks and cannot be re-assigned for the offensive. The number of operational fighters and attack aircraft in the Ukrainian Air Force is unknown, but a significant proportion of these could be shot down by the Russian Air Force at the start of the operation.

What if the AFU does not stage a counteroffensive now?
The AFU attack is likely to be postponed to a later date, by which time both equipment and men will have gathered in sufficient numbers. In addition, the weather is forcing adjustments – it makes no sense to advance in rainy and muddy conditions. The results of reckless attempts to attack are clearly visible in Artemovsk, where most of the roads are littered with wrecked AFU equipment.


https://www.rt.com/russia/575300-wha...nteroffensive/

[Vicus]

History for adults

This explain the English hate towards Russia...

How the English once planned to seize the Russian North

When he was expanding diplomatic relations with England, the first Russian tsar, Ivan the Terrible, could hardly have anticipated that, shortly afterwards, his “partners” would want to turn part of the Tsardom of Muscovy into their own colony.



The English set foot on Russian soil for the first time on August 24, 1553. The ‘Edward Bonaventure’ ship belonged to an English trading company known as the ‘Mystery and Company of Merchant Adventurers for the Discovery of Regions, Dominions, Islands, and Places Unknown’ and Richard Chancellor was its captain. The ship entered the mouth of the Northern Dvina and moored not far from the Nikolo-Korelsky Monastery, 35 km from Arkhangelsk. From there, Chancellor went to Kholmogory and then on to Moscow, where he handed Ivan the Terrible a letter from King Edward IV. From that moment on, the tsar allowed the British to trade in Russia

Ivan the Terrible wanted to make England his “strategic partner”, which explains his considerable hospitality. With the beginning of the Livonian War (1558-1583), ships of the Muscovy Company supplied Russia with saltpeter, sulfur, lead and tin; they also brought English engineers and doctors to Russia.

_ Plan for the establishment of an English protectorate
_ The English plan remained a secret for three centuries
continue:

_ https://www.rbth.com/history/336077-...h-english-yard

_Read more
What was the most bitter Russian-British war?
Why did British troops attack Russia in 1918?
What’s so special about the Russian North?

[Gwin Ru]

...

... China & Zelenskyy Talking - Col Doug Macgregor 23:25

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom

Streamed live 103 minutes ago #Ukraine

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=f9uv2uN2E5s

[Gwin Ru]

...

... taking a hard look at Ukraine's catastrophic future:

2023.04.26 Demographics of Ukraine 08:54

Gonzalo Lira — Again

Premiered 3 hours ago

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=87PBwl8JB3I

[ExomatrixTV]

• backup video

[ExomatrixTV]

[Ravenlocke]

Split, Russian Officials Discount Kiev Counteroffensive Prospects, Lavrov Says West Policy Absurd; As Ukr Defeat Fears Grow Calls Biden 'Come Clean'

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=CBBl3aFO23g

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/...54251832631299

https://twitter.com/ArthurM40330824/...86899967139840

[ExomatrixTV]

• Joe Biden Makes It Official – He’s In! Ukraine Weapons Sold On The Black Market! W/ Seymour Hersh:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jOKWrGcsd30

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1651321399166881795

https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1651322244704919552

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/sta...33498412597251

https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/sta...36062524948480

¤=[Post Update]=¤

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status...64118668640268

¤=[Post Update]=¤

https://twitter.com/Trollstoy88/stat...07844426137644

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/Hawkeye1745/stat...58168092114948

https://twitter.com/Daark_web/status...03441107656704

[shaberon]

Posted by Vicus (here)
This explain the English hate towards Russia...

How the English once planned to seize the Russian North

This turned out to be a detached event recovered in the library:


In the latter half of 1612, a dispatch was sent to London with a detailed account of events in Russia. The probable author of the document was Captain Thomas Chamberlain.


The English plans to take advantage of the ‘Time of Troubles’ to “subjugate” the Russian North were unknown until 1914. The Chamberlain plan was discovered in British archives by a Russian historian named Inna Lubimenko.



It never amounted to much of anything.

However, starting with the same King in the 1600s, there is British Israelism:


Anglo-Israelism has also been attributed to King James VI and I, who believed he was the King of Israel.

The extent to which the British clergy became aware of the existence of the movement may be gauged by the comment which Cardinal John Henry Newman (1801–1890) made when he was asked why he had left the Church of England in 1845 in order to join the Roman Catholic Church. He said that there was a very real danger that the movement "would take over the Church of England."


Judged by the same Book:


It might be helpful to mention one example of the kind of teaching often used to support Anglo-Israelite views. In The United States and Britain in Prophecy, Ezekiel 21:27 is quoted to prove that God would overturn the throne of David three times, transferring it each time to a new location. The theory is that the first overturning transferred the throne from Jerusalem to Ireland, the second to Scotland, and the third, under King James, to England. Therefore the British monarch is an alleged descendant of King David.


Where people these days have a hardcore belief in Ezekiel 38:

Russia will invade Israel in the End Times.


I am thinking that throughout the 1700s there were some Fundamentalists and Pentecostals in England who due to the above simply hated Russia. Then Lord Palmerston more or less announced it as public policy around 1830, that everyone should go and hate them.


Here is the same idea from Lydia Lee, Theology Dept., U-S. Africa:


Reagan was far from alone in his belief of the Russian-Gog's invasion in Israel or the USA. Mein (2013:136) notes that the attempt to associate Gog with Russia had already begun in 19th-century Britain, as a result of the 'competing interests' between Britain and Russia in Central Asia. This Russophobia was compounded by an exegetical 'preference for the Septuagint version of 38:1', which treats the Hebrew שׁאר not as a common noun, that is 'head' or 'chief', but as the proper name 'Rhos' that was then connected with 'Rus' and Russia (Mein 2013:137). Boyer (1992:162) further contextualises Reagan's identification of Gog as Russia in 'the stream of apocalyptic teaching about Russia that had coursed through American popular religion for well over a century'.







For the Bills that appear in Congress now, I do not find anything that would require militancy, but there is another attempt at extortion in this little gem, H 535:

(1) IN GENERAL.—None of the funds authorized to be appropriated or otherwise made available to any Federal department or agency may be used to provide assistance for the central government of a country that the Secretary of State determines and reports to the appropriate congressional committees—



if you believe the new Russian territories are Russia.

[Rizotto]

Sounds like the beginning of a chance for negotiations. Will this be derailed by the UK/USA/NATO war mongers?

China to send envoy to Ukraine after Xi and Zelensky hold first call since Russian invasion (2 minutes)

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=G6QFLDZW36k

[Tintin]

Here, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs report on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine. A 59 page PDF file - Part 1 - which can be downloaded here. This (Part 1) contains over 80 references as well; it's thorough as one might expect.

------

The Human Rights Situation in Ukraine
Report of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Foreword

This report is a follow-up on the Ministry's efforts to bring the international community’s attention to the difficult human rights situation in Ukraine, which has significantly deteriorated over the past year. This is confirmed by the many cases on record of grave human rights violations in all spheres of public life, as well as the unwillingness to take action to improve the situation on the part of those who call themselves the country's leaders.

At the same time, it is definitely worth mentioning that the large number of problems in Ukraine have been observed by numerous international human rights monitoring mechanisms, as well as international and Ukrainian non-governmental human rights organisations. All of them have noted the systemic nature of human rights violations in Ukraine and noted with concern that the authorities should pay close attention to the identified problems and deploy significant efforts to resolve them.

However, the events confirm the Ukrainian leadership’s inability to even go through the motions and attempt to address serious human rights violations. Such actions of the Kiev regime once again illustrate its lack of independence. In fact, Kiev is a neo-Nazi regime that is acting upon the instructions of external sponsors to create an anti-Russia project from its own country. The sole purpose of this entity is to serve as a source of tension in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s borders despite destroying its own statehood in the process. It is precisely because of the obsequious readiness of the current Ukrainian government to deny everything that bounds it to Russia and, to the detriment of the interests of their people, to destroy the history and memory of the real rather than fictional past of their country, that the overseas sponsors turn a blind eye to its neo-Nazi nature and nudge it to follow the path of self-destruction.

--------

This can also be read via their site here

--------

Extracted from page/s 3 and 4, none of which comes as any surprise to forum members or similarly educated viewers out there:

A number of researchers have rightly noted that the Kiev regime underwent a
political mutation in 2022. The environment that it created in the wake of the
martial law allowed it to build an authoritarian rule in that country which can be
described as an absolute monopoly on power, out-of-court reprisals, tough
censorship, liquidation of almost all independent media and the destruction of
political opposition, total state propaganda, an active search for traitors and
fictional Russian spies and saboteurs. Having adopted the ideology and practices of
the Ukrainian national radicals, the current regime has, in fact, degenerated into a
neo-Nazi dictatorship.

This kind of a regime needs a state of war and the widespread use of reprisals as
the only and, at the same time, the surest way to preserve its domination. It will
exist as long as a high degree of escalation in society is maintained, armed
confrontation with an external enemy continues, and most importantly, widespread
Western assistance, primarily military, is provided. Acting along the lines of this
logic, such a regime will exist only as long as it maintains this degree of escalation
in society and is at war with an external enemy. The end of the war for such a
regime means the end of its existence.

Overall, the situation with promoting and protecting human rights in Ukraine has
become critical. The right to freedom and personal inviolability is regularly
infringed upon in that country. There are numerous facts of illegal arrests and
subsequent detention, torture, intimidation, and inhuman and cruel treatment that
are aimed, among other things, at forcing the people in custody to confess their
guilt.

The persecution of political opponents, independent journalists and media
companies as well as members of public organisations that are objectionable to the
authorities, which, as a rule, comes amid claims about the importance of combating
“Russian aggression” and “separatism”, has acquired unprecedented proportions.
To this end, the Kiev authorities actively engage members of radical nationalist
organisations who often break the law, but always go unpunished.

The rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs), the Russian-speaking people and
representatives of ethnic minorities, of whom there are many among the IDPs,
have been restricted. Kiev’s campaign against the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox
Church has reached a new level in terms of cynicism and hypocrisy. It has now
taken the form of a total ban on the UOC, including Zelenskiy regime’s decision to
evict its clergy from the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra.

The problem of corruption, which is deeply rooted in the Ukrainian state, remains
unresolved. The measures declared by the Kiev authorities to combat it, including
the creation of relevant specialised entities, turn out ineffective in practice. Juan
Pablo Bohoslavsky, an independent expert from the UN Human Rights Council on
foreign debt and human rights, pointed out the state of affairs in this sphere at the
end of his official visit to Ukraine in May 2018.1 The Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights also noted the scale of corruption in April 2014 2 and the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women noted it in February 2017. According to CEDAW experts, corruption, as well as rising unemployment, declining standards of living and the ongoing crisis create favourable conditions for widespread human trafficking.3

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/Sinnaig/status/1651464862977908741

[Journeyman]

Posted by Vicus (here)
Ukrainian commander laments state of army – El Pais 24 Apr, 2023

Kiev needs up to six times more troops and firepower than Russia for its counteroffensive to succeed, General Sergey Melnik says

Kiev needs more troops, ammunition and equipment to continue its military conflict with Moscow, Ukrainian Brigadier General Sergey Melnik told Spain’s El Pais in an interview published on Monday. Ukraine has already lost most of its professional soldiers as the conflict drags on, he admitted.

“The problem is that we have a lack of people and equipment,” said the general, who commands troops near the Russian border in Kharkov Region. “Professional soldiers… are already exhausted, injured or recovering. Or… dead,” he added.

Melnik said Kiev is now relying on “people without military experience,” who first need to be trained and have an “adequate [level of] preparation to face the enemy.” According to El Pais, the general also “stressed several times during the interview” that Ukraine needs more air-defense systems, citing the threat posed by Russian aircraft.

He also admitted that Kiev’s forces would need to gain massive superiority in manpower and firepower if they are to have any hope of succeeding with a planned counteroffensive. Ukraine will need “four to six times” as many troops as Moscow has fielded in its ongoing military campaign if it is to break through the defenses built by the Russian forces in their current positions, he told El Pais.



https://www.rt.com/russia/575278-ukr...nt-state-army/

It's interesting to compare the original interview: https://english.elpais.com/internati...-war-ends.html with the RT article.

[Vicus]

Poland seizes Russian embassy and trade mission funds 26 Apr, 2023

Moscow’s envoy has called the move a “flagrant violation” of the Vienna Convention



All the money in the accounts of the Russian embassy and trade office in Warsaw has been seized by the Polish prosecutor’s office, Ambassador Sergey Andreyev revealed on Wednesday.

“We received a notification from the prosecutor’s office that the funds from the Santander Bank accounts of the embassy and the trade representation were transferred to the accounts of the prosecutor’s office,” Andreyev told RIA Novosti.

Santander Bank then informed the embassy that it had “ceased cooperation” with the Russian government and closed the accounts, Andreyev added. There were “significant amounts” of both US dollars and Polish zlotys in both accounts, according to the diplomat.

Andreyev called the incident “a flagrant violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations,” the 1961 treaty governing the rights and responsibilities of diplomats.

The Polish authorities had previously frozen the embassy account, citing suspicions that it might be involved in “money laundering or terrorism.” When this prevented the embassy from paying the lease on a recreational facility near Warsaw, the Polish authorities terminated the lease and seized the property in November 2022.

Another property, a residence on 100 Sobieski Street, was seized last spring. Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski said at the time it should be handed to refugees from Ukraine. The Polish foreign ministry said the building was “illegally owned” by the embassy as it was not being used for diplomatic or consular purposes. The embassy’s explanation, that the building was unfit for occupancy as it needed repairs, was ignored.

Poland has also sought to confiscate the embassy-operated school in Warsaw, citing the same pretext. The Russian Foreign Ministry has protested both seizures as a flagrant violation of international law.

Many EU and NATO countries have expelled dozens of Russian diplomats after the Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022, but most did not go so far as to sever relations with Moscow. The US and its allies have insisted they are not actually involved in the conflict, even while they sent Kiev over $100 billion worth of weapons and financial aid.

https://www.rt.com/news/575396-polan...assy-accounts/

[Vicus]

Poland looking for conflict 'with all its neighbors' – Russia's top spy 26 Apr, 2023

Warsaw is drilling for war with NATO-ally Germany, Sergey Naryshkin has claimed

Warsaw is not just looking at taking a bite out of Ukraine, but preparing for a hypothetical conflict with fellow NATO member Germany, according to the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin.

Naryshkin pointed to a military exercise conducted at the end of March near the city of Szczecin, on the German-Polish border. The drills, code-named ‘Daglezja’ (Douglas fir), involved three Polish brigades dealing with “military aggression” from an unnamed neighbor to the west.

Polish troops practiced destroying bridges, erecting barricades and mining the roads along the border with Germany, the SVR said.

This kind of military planning reflects Warsaw’s growing “anti-German sentiments and fears about possible revanchist claims of Berlin,” according to the Russian intelligence head. The “suspicion” towards the NATO ally to the west is parallel to Poland’s ongoing territorial aspirations towards its former “eastern borderlands,” now part of Ukraine.

“Today’s Poland is turning into what it was in the times of Jozef Pilsudski, when Warsaw was in conflict with all its neighbors and longed for territorial expansion,” Naryshkin said in a statement. “Such was the Poland that [British PM] Winston Churchill aptly called ‘the hyena of Europe’ on the eve of the Second World War.”

Naryshkin had previously suggested that Warsaw harbored designs on Ukrainian territory, which Poland denied, accusing the Russian official of waging information warfare.

Although both countries are members of the US-led NATO, last October Warsaw demanded more than €1.3 trillion in WWII reparations from Berlin, and appealed to the UN for help in January, after Germany refused.

Visiting the US earlier this month, Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki declared that Warsaw wanted to build “the strongest army in Europe” and offered to serve as a hub for the expanded US military presence on the continent.

https://www.rt.com/news/575388-polan...onflict-spies/

[Ravenlocke]

https://twitter.com/Daark_web/status...59077045329934