WW3? Ukraine/US vs. Donbass/Russia

[Patient]

Posted by I am B (here)
THERES A COUP GOING ON BY WAGNER IN RUSSIA.

Sorry mods, I'm just here drunk as a skunk celebrating solstice (1:10am) like a good spainard, and suddenly some sort of military coup intent by the wagner group erupts. Got half sober instantly.

Information is confusing, largely unverifiable, but something BIG is going on.

I won't post much specifics here since I'm not in a situation to curate it, but please, just wake up and go look for it yourselves, something big is likely coming out of this... If we even see the light of day again.

First story is wagner turned around, abandoned Ukraine, and its heading with 25k men towards moscow, after a comunicate asking people to join them aganist the Defence ministry. Moscow is in full alert, so as the regions bordering ukraine.

An official communication is comming out now on the matter in Russian Channel 1, my Russian lady will try to get access to it, but we're out and not in the best condition.

As I said, information is short and hardly verified. It could all be a Psyop for some hardcore 5d chess..

Im just here to kick you guys awake if possible.

Will update if something big comes up and nobody else happens to be awake.

Cheers! Happy solstice!

I heard that a group of Russian Soldiers were killed by a missile (from Russian forces) and I think that would have been to deter or weaken the coup attempt. It is confusing as to which occurred first.

Soldiers from the front line are heading back into Russia and part of something said was 'We will avenge the attack on our own soldiers from the Russian Government and then everything will return to normal.' They have broadcasted to the public "Stay in your homes as we pass by. Anyone trying to stop us will be our enemy - either from the ground or air." Something like that anyway.

I was informed on fighting occurring as Russian soldiers were fighting the Wagner soldiers (near the front lines) and that it's a bloodbath.

The U.S. is preparing and said that if any nukes are used against Ukraine that could threaten Poland or any other Nato country, article 5 will come into play. (Which will then have all of Nato join in.)

I think the talking of the possibility of a nuclear attack is due to the thought that if Putin becomes trapped and reckless, what might he do.

Let's pray for the best and hope this is resolved within Russia before it escalates into a bigger mess.

[Patient]

Translation of a speech from Preghozin

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=0d5JCx2cJbg

[Patient]

Canada's Prime Minster Trudeau has told Ukraine that Canada is now the guarantor for Ukraine.

What does that even mean? He can't guarantee the safety of the people of Ukraine, but what he has done is dragged Nato all the way in - or trying to.

It is needed to be said that Trudeau has done this on his own accord. It was not brought up in parliament - it is definitely not from the people of Canada. I am sure that most people would rather have us all looking for a way to stop the war - not inflame it.

[Patient]

Almost 4am in Russia - blockades set up around Moscow. Preghozin's (Wagners) group is on there way into towards Moscow. Just shot down a Russian helicopter.

This is going to go the distance within Russia.

Anton Gerashchenko:
At close to 4 a.m., the governor of the Rostov region on the Ukraine border — where Prigozhin claims to have led his fighters — issued a statement addressing the public. “The law enforcement authorities are doing everything necessary to assure the safety of the region’s residents,” the governor, Vasily Golubev, said in a Telegram post. “I’m asking everyone to stay calm and not leave their home without necessity.”

[Patient]

This might have been planned by Nato working with the Wagner group of the Russian military - the timing of everything makes that suspicisous.

[Ravenlocke]

Text:

According to the FSB DSP, all information disseminated in social networks on behalf of Prigozhin about the missile and bomb attacks allegedly inflicted by the Ministry of Defense on the rear units of the Wagner PMC is untrue and is an informational provocation.

The Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out combat missions on the line of contact with the armed forces of Ukraine in the area of the NMD.

Prigozhin's statements and actions are in fact calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and are a "stab in the back" to Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces.

Due to the seriousness of the situation and the threat of an escalation of confrontation in the Russian Federation, the FSB initiated a criminal case on the fact of Prigozhin's call for an armed rebellion .

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status...54793002524675

[Bill Ryan]

Prigozhin has always had Narcissistic Personality Disorder, and now (with PTSD and/or something else kicking in) things have gone a little too far.

Here's TASS:

• https://tass.com/russia/1637475

Prigozhin charged with armed mutiny, to face up to 20 years in prison

The Russian Defense Ministry called the reports on strikes at Wagner PMC units false



A criminal case over charges of organization of armed mutiny was initiated against Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin after his Telegram channel published his claims that the Russian Defense Ministry hit PMC units with airstrikes and his calls for supporters to rise against the national government.

The Defense Ministry debunked claims of airstrikes at Wagner PMC units. Kremlin Spokesman stated that President Vladimir Putin was informed about the situation regarding Prigozhin, adding that all necessary measures are being taken.

The Federal Security Service (FSB) press office said that the criminal was initiated due to the seriousness of the situation and the threat of escalation in Russia; it also called on PMC fighters not to comply with Prigozhin’s orders and to detain him.

Here are key facts about the situation regarding Prigozhin.

Defense Ministry debunks claims

The Russian Defense Ministry called the reports on strikes at Wagner PMC units false.
The Ministry added that Russian forces continue to carry out missions in the special military operation area. Later, the Ministry announced that the Kiev regime took advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation and is concentrating forces of 35th and 36th Marine Brigades on the Bakhmut direction for offensive action.

Putin informed

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that President Vladimir Putin was informed about the situation around Prigozhin and "necessary measures are being taken."
According to the spokesman, all Russian security agencies report to Putin about measures being taken around the clock.

Criminal case

The National Antiterrorism Committee announced that Prigozhin’s statements became grounds for initiation of the criminal case over charges of calls for an armed mutiny; the Committee demanded to immediately stop illegal actions.

Later, the Prosecutor General’s Office said that the criminal case was initiated legitimately and was justified. The Office promised to provide legal assessment to Prigozhin’s actions. The Wagner PMC founder may face between 12 and 20 years in prison.

‘Stab in the back’

Prigozhin’s statements effectively constitute calls for beginning of and armed civil conflict, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) press office said.

"Prigozhin’s statements and actions effectively constitute calls for an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and a stab in the back of Russian servicemen fighting with pro-Nazi Ukrainian forces," the press office said.

To resolve problems peacefully

Russia’s Deputy Commander of Russian joint forces in the special military operation area Sergey Surovikin called on the Wagner PMC to comply with President Vladimir Putin’s order and to resolve all issues peacefully.

"I urge you to stop. The enemy is waiting for our internal political situation to escalate. We must not play in enemy’s favor in this difficult time. Before it is too late, it is necessary to submit to the will and order to the nationally elected president of the Russian Federation, to stop the convoys, to take them back to their permanent deployment and concentration locations, and to only resolve all issues peacefully," he said.

Special TV reports

Russia’s Channel 1 aired two special reports. The first said that the video about the "strike" on Wagner PMC positions is fake, proven by the absence of other video footage, and the fact that audio files on Prigozhin’s Telegram channel were recorded simultaneously and were published as scheduled messages. In addition, the report announced the initiation of the criminal case against Prigozhin.

The second special report also included Surovikin’s address.

Situation in Moscow and the regions

Moscow’s critical facilities have been put under reinforced protection, security measures in the capital have been increased, a source in law enforcement agencies told TASS. According to the source, Russian National Guard special units were put on full alert.

Car traffic has been blocked on Russia’s M-4 highway past Rostov-on-Don towards Aksay, according to TASS reported at the scene. All cars moving from Rostov-on-Don towards Aksay are being redirected back in the city, and police checkpoints have been reinforced.

Checkpoints have been established near the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, with military and law enforcement upholding the public order. Military checkpoints have been established on streets adjacent to the headquarters, with numerous police cars; an armored personnel carrier was spotted near the headquarters building. The city’s central streets are being patrolled by police cars; aircraft was heard in air in Western parts of the city. No security agency has provided any official comments yet.

Meanwhile, the situation at the "Wagner PMC Center" building in St. Petersburg remains calm, there are no Russian National Guard employees or employees of other security services, according to a TASS reporter. Security detail on duty debunked reports of searches in the building.

Crimean authorities urged residents to only trust official information due to intensified activities of Ukraine’s Informational and Psychological Operation Center (TSIPsO).

International reaction

US authorities watch the situation in Russia closely, CNN reported citing unnamed Administration representative. According to the report, US President Joe Biden was informed about the ongoing events.

According to CNN’s sources, Prigozhin’s statements are "more than his usual rhetoric.".

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
❗Channel One, in a special news release, called it staged a video with the alleged consequences of a strike by the Russian of Defense on the positions of the Wagner PMC.

Nothing new was said. It was a right decision to tell about this situation on TV as not all Russians read the news on Internet, especially the elderly generation who needed the explanation.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...74442511540224

[Ravenlocke]

Text:
There is no panic in Moscow and St. Petersburg - people walk along the central streets of the two capitals of Russia and dance to the music

In the center of Moscow, despite reports of increased security measures after Yevgeny Prigozhin's statement, life continues to boil. Young people have gathered on the central streets of the city, dancing to the music and celebrating Youth Day, and the bars are packed with visitors.

The same situation, where there is no place for panic, reigns in St. Petersburg. There are no obvious unrest on the central streets of St. Petersburg and near the water channels on the eve of the Scarlet Sails - earlier in some chats they disseminated information about boats moving towards the Wagner Center.

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/st...85917972037632

[Patient]

I had heard that U.S. airforce had armed it's planes and were already prepared and in the air well prior to Prigozhin's speaking out about moving on Moscow.

So, I am suspicious that some part of Nato is involved in maybe encouraging or manipulating this move by Prigozhin.

Time will tell I guess.

[ExomatrixTV]

• COUP IN RUSSIA?! Wagner's Prigozhin Goes Head to Head with Moscow:

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=gCdQ4QDR_Us

starts at 11:03

[Ravenlocke]

Text:

Statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation:

“Taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation to disorganize the situation, the Kiev regime in the Bakhmutovsky tactical direction is concentrating units of the 35th Marine Brigade and the 36th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the starting lines for offensive operations.

Servicemen of the Southern Group of Forces defeat the enemy with air and artillery strikes


https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/st...16766197202946

[ExomatrixTV]

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kFrhQFxAzuE

The EU wants an extra €66 Billion from member states for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the conflict with Russia. The money has to be knocked out of the pockets of the common man. “Remember that the EU also already has 2018 billion available in the corona recovery fund, 100 billion from the emissions trading system, €100 Billion in the climate transition fund and €114 Billion available for the Green Deal. These are absurd amounts,” says MEP Marcel de Graaff (FVD). “And all that money comes from the taxpayer; of you and me,” he notes.

• The Netherlands is broken down for this

The sanctions against Russia have pushed the German economy and now even the EU as a whole into recession. And the EU, with its billion-dollar plans, is the cause of our economic problems, says the MEP. “66 billion must be made available for the construction of the most corrupt country in Europe. Ukraine is not an EU country and not a NATO country,” says De Graaff. “But the Netherlands is being broken down for this. Child benefit is being reduced, electricity and petrol are unaffordable and our pensions are being cut because our pension pot has already disappeared to the EU.”

• Always more

This EU always wants more; more power, more control, more money. This has to stop! The sanctions must stop, the supply of weapons must stop, the giving away of billions of euros to Ukraine must stop, says the MEP. He points out that citizens receive nothing in return from the EU. “No peace, no prosperity, no freedom, but war, debt, poverty and unemployment.”

• dutch 🇳🇱 (+ Multi-Language Options). 🦜🦋🌳

[Patient]

I estimate that Prigozhin has 600 - 700 km to travel to Moscow. A lot of that could be farm country depending upon where exactly they are coming from.

Or is he a lot closer already?

Couldn't they attack him from the air to deplete his resources? It is strange that he would announce his movement at such an early stage considering the distance he has to travel. Does this expose his mental state?

[Bill Ryan]

Calm down, folks, nothing's going to happen here. (Except for the possibility that Russian Special Forces may quietly take Prigozhin out... and if so, very likely supported by some of his own elite forces who would be credited with the whole thing.)

Here are one or two things to remember:

• Prigozhin isn't Wagner's military commander. He's just the figurehead and 'owner' (though that in itself is a complex structure). Wagner's battlefield tactics and strategy all come from seasoned commanders with a great deal of military experience. Their names are not publicized. It'd be extraordinary if they were to dutifully follow Prigozhin to whatever the bitter end might be.

• A fairly significant proportion of Prigozhin's forces are former convicts who have been promised that their crimes would be pardoned in return for honorable military duty supporting the Russian Federation. You can bet your boots that very few if any of them would be willing to put their future freedom in jeopardy by acting against the very state that's promised to pardon them.

• Every one of Prigozhin's troops knows how powerful the Russian military is. If they try to go toe-to-toe with them in any meaningful military way, it'd be pretty bloody, for sure. But they'd largely be wiped out, and any prisoners taken would be tried for treason, NOT a good thing to happen in Russia if one is guilty.

~~~

I was going to go for a mountain hike tomorrow (Saturday), but I'm thinking I'll probably stay at my desk instead as it might be quite an interesting day.

(One thing that'lll be worth watching for is that Alexander Mercouris has a very reliable senior personal source in Russia, with whom he's in regular contact and who is very close to the Wagner organization. Over the last couple of months this man has shared with Mercouris much of their inner workings, finances, and command structure. He'll certainly be explaining to Mercouris exactly what's happening here, and why.

I'll postpone my hike to Sunday, because by then all this will have largely blown over.

[Bill Ryan]

Just published by Simplicius the Thinker. (Way too long to copy here, and most reading this will know the backstory already. I'll only copy the opening paragraphs and the closing ones.)

• https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/...ency-situation

Special Report: Emergency Situation as Prigozhin Goes Nuclear Option

(INTRO)
Heavy things are afoot. I had been busy writing my next unrelated report, when this major situation interrupted, forcing me to delay the regularly scheduled report in order to address the alarming developments.

Prigozhin appears to have initiated a coup attempt. Information is still developing constantly so nothing is definitive or confirmed. That’s why I wanted to focus more on the potential causes rather than the speculative and constantly-changing informational noise. But just for those who may be completely unaware of the happenings:

———
(many videos and telegram posts, offering deep background plus a few recent events)
———

(CONCLUSION)
However, on the other side of the coin, there is one unsettling thing about all this to me. Which is that, unless Prigozhin has completely had a mental break and is outright deranged (which I doubt), what he’s doing would appear to be suicidal. To march a few mercenary troops into Russia on the fly or on a whim seems utterly lunatic and would clearly result in nothing more than Prigozhin’s arrest and long imprisonment if not his death.

So, it’s unsettling for that very reason that I don’t think Prigozhin — or anyone sane — would make such a move off the cuff unless they had it all planned out many steps in advance and — most importantly — had already secured some kind of significant internal support somewhere.

So, does that mean Prigozhin may have actually thought this out, planned it well in advance, and has the secret support of many important figures in the Russian military who will actually back him in this coup?

What other possibility could there be for him to make this wild attempt? No sane person would do this unless they’ve secured secret approval or quiet support from some powerful higher-ups. And if that’s the case, that means this situation would be much more serious than it appears.

I fully accept the fact that events are moving quickly and within hours of posting this some huge new development could obviate or refute most of everything I’ve written here, and certainly tomorrow promises to be an eventful day.

~~~

Simplicius closes by offering his comments section as a way for those interested to keep abreast of new developments, so those may be useful to follow. (The Moon of Alabama does this also, but comments there are very poorly moderated and so the overall quality and clarity of commenting is much lower than it should be.)

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
Simplicius closes by offering his comments section as a way for those interested to keep abreast of new developments, so those may be useful to follow.

Two comments (from the same person) that I'd suggest are very likely to be the truth, or pretty close to it.

~~~

I think you are missing a fourth option.

4. Prigozhin suffers from bipolar disorder and has been having a manic episode going on for months now that is reaching its crescendo.

Keep in mind that when someone is in a manic episode, they suffer from paranoid delusions. Paranoid means they think people are out to get them even when they're not. Delusions means their beliefs are clearly not all true. Sound about right?

I have been hesitant to say this but I suspected it might be true all along.

Also, keep in mind, he may not be doing all these things for himself, but really for the sake of Russia. It's just he could be delusional and not totally in touch with reality. I really don't think he's trying to stage a coup, but in his mind, he needs to do certain things for Russia. It's difficult to describe delusional people unless you have experienced them firsthand.

(and then as a PS)

I will also add that severe stress is a pretty sure way to trigger a manic episode in a person with bipolar disorder.

You take a bipolar person and put them in a meat grinder like Bakhmut and I assure you they'll all come out of there manic.

~~~

90 minutes earlier I'd written:

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)

Prigozhin has always had Narcissistic Personality Disorder, and now (with PTSD and/or something else kicking in) things have gone a little too far.

[Patient]

Well, things are happening - a group is taking control of a government building in Rostov. (about an hour ago.)

It appears that there is activity in many places - but it is difficult to know if it is Wagner or the Russian military just taking positions.

Looks like we won't know the extent of things for quite a few hours.

[Bill Ryan]

Reported by Slavyangrad 10 minutes ago:
(The source, the 'Rezident' Ukrainian Telegram channel, isn't in English, so this is either a translation or a summary)

~~~

Ukrainian channel Rezident:

Our source in the Office of the President said that the Office of the President instructed the SBU and CIPSO to use the entire network of telegram channels in Russia to escalate the situation in Russian society. All work should be built along two main lines: a call to the Russian army to support the PMC Wagner, and in parallel to this, demand from the authorities to deal harshly with Prigozhin. It is necessary to provoke an internal political conflict and shed first blood in order to start the Civil War in Russia.

~~~

My own comment: as best I can see right now, many of the telegram reports are fakes, or fake reports forwarded in good faith. Something is happening, but not nearly as much as many have been deliberately led to believe.

[shaberon]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
[*]Prigozhin isn't Wagner's military commander. He's just the figurehead and 'owner' (though that in itself is a complex structure).

That is why he cannot possibly stage a coup.

That means a pledge from some amount of state forces to support a new leader or change of government. As a private contractor, he can only throw a revolution (replace the government) or civil war (gain control of the current government).


He already made a lot of noise about the ammunition, which, itself, made little sense, because Wagner's progresses were adequately fast enough without the "higher speed" he claimed to have been able to reach.

His best bet would probably have been totally to turn colors and defect into Ukraine.

That guy was skeezy, as for the rest of Wagner, perhaps we should reserve judgment.