Israel vs Palestine/Lebanon/Iran/Yemen/Syria: a New Middle East War

[Raskolnikov]

Posted by Ravenlocke (here)
sarah

No. This isn’t a post-apocalyptic movie.

This is what Israel is doing to Tebnine, South Lebanon.

A village that stood for thousands of years.

Now erased.

Israel didn’t just bomb it.

It wiped out every sign of civilian life.

https://x.com/sahouraxo/status/2051722707520155977

Anyone else getting the feeling that this has all happened before? Viewing this vulgarity I can't help but think of all the cities destroyed by "fire," the World's Fairs, and all ancient ruins the world over. Something tells me the people responsible for the creation of modern day Israel have been doing exactly this for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Erasing the past and resetting the future by any means necessary. One thing's certain, these maniacs must be stopped by any means necessary.

[Vicus]

‘YOU’RE DONE’: RUSSIA, CHINA BACK IRAN AS U.S. RUNS OUT OF OPTIONS | Mark Sleboda

Iran is making it clear that its control over the Strait of Hormuz isn't going anywhere, unveiling the 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' for ships that want to pass.

Russia and China are making it clear that they stand with Iran, welcoming Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to St. Petersburg last week, and to Beijing this week.

International Relations and Security Analyst Mark Sleboda noted that right now, Russia and China are sending the U.S. a very loud "YOU'RE DONE" in response to Washington's relentless targeting of Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the multipolar world and the entire global economy.

continue with video: https://rachelblevins.substack.com/p...a-mark-sleboda

[bojancan]

Interesting debate... analyses by three gentlemen I respect... Interesting!

May,06
The Duran
525K subscribers
US Superpower Myth Shattered w/ Trita Parsi

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Pv7003ksQQ4

Iran has achieved what almost no country has managed in the post-Cold War era, a strategic defeat of the United States military without being knocked out on the first punch. In a landmark conversation on The Duran, Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou sit down with Trita Parsi to dissect exactly how America's 40-year obsession with finding a "silver bullet" against Iran has brought Washington to its weakest position in the Middle East since 1979.

Parsi argues that the naval blockade of Iran sold to Trump as the final pressure tool that would force capitulation was built on dangerously flimsy analysis, and that the window for Trump to negotiate a genuine exit and spin it as a win is rapidly closing.
From Iran's nuclear calculus and the prospect of a grand bargain replacing the JCPOA, to the long-term unraveling of the American security umbrella across the Gulf states, this episode maps out the tectonic shift now reshaping the global order. The question is no longer whether US primacy in the Middle East is ending it's whether Washington will recognize it in time to leave on its own terms.



00:00:00 Introduction — Trita Parsi joins The Duran for the first time
00:00:51 Where to follow Trita Parsi: Substack, Twitter, Quincy Institute
00:01:17 Setting the scene: yesterday's Hormuz events and what they mean
00:02:18 The blockade as a failed silver bullet — Parsi's key article explained
00:03:26 40 years of US "silver bullet" thinking on Iran — and why it always fails
00:04:42 Why the ceasefire was lopsided against Iran from the start
00:05:55 Iran only accepted the ceasefire under pressure from China and Pakistan
00:07:10 Why the US Navy won't actually escort ships through Hormuz
00:08:20 UAE drone strike: Iran signals it still has escalation dominance
00:09:38 Iran's original opposition to the ceasefire — the inside story
00:10:28 What would it actually take to force open the Strait of Hormuz?
00:11:36 The real military answer: occupying 1,500km of Iranian coastline
00:14:13 A watershed moment: the US failed to knock out an adversary on first punch
00:16:19 Can this strategy be replicated by other states? Implications for China and Russia
00:17:29 Why this is a strategic defeat — not just a stalemate
00:18:22 The end of US global primacy: from NSS documents to battlefield reality
00:19:38 GCC states begin to diversify away from the American security umbrella
00:21:06 The psychological blow — when strategic defeat hits home inside America
00:22:09 Iran's hostage crisis legacy and why admitting defeat to Iran is uniquely painful
00:23:40 Trump's remaining window: he can still spin a deal as a win
00:24:38 What a real deal looks like — nuclear compromise plus sanctions relief
00:26:52 Will Iran compromise? How the war may have hardened Iranian positions
00:28:47 Iran's nuclear calculus: sprint to a weapon or negotiate?
00:29:53 Iran's grand bargain: full sanctions removal, non-aggression pact, UN guarantee
00:31:38 Is the US heading for a Middle East withdrawal after 35 years?
00:33:31 The danger of Iran framing a US withdrawal as a demand rather than a choice
00:35:36 The decline of US diplomacy — and can it be reformed?
00:37:56 Obama's JCPOA as the exception — and the secret Oman channel that broke the deadlock
00:39:45 Stop listening to Israeli-aligned advisers — Parsi's direct message to Trump
00:40:47 How Trump could overwhelm the foreign policy blob and win the public
00:41:29 Closing — where to follow Trita Parsi's work

[shaberon]

Posted by Vicus (here)
As we've been warning for over a decade, the US was never going to just roll over in the face of Russian defiance regarding Crimea, Iranian resistance against Israeli expansionism, and Chinese 'win-win' geoeconomic strategy towards a multipolar world. They hatched a 'counter-attack', and Trump is playing his part to 'make America great again', which is really just to do whatever the US can to forestall or prevent the end of its currency's status as 'global reserve currency'.

Perhaps, but it is too late.

Not that the dollar is "gone" in that sense, but, alternatives are incoming, and, more strongly, everyone knows about it.

The US was, actually, in an ideal position after World War Two, and has grossly mismanaged the whole thing every step of the way. They took a physical fact and ruined it in ways that were perhaps temporarily or illusorily advantageous. Primarily the use of force, which is not a consensus builder.


Here, no one hatched a counter-attack, it was Israeli ambition choosing the course of violence.

As to the potential invasion that is still sitting in the water:

“You are extras in a movie show for Trump’s next presidential election… Your president has not been able to save US forces in previous wars,” he said.

The former diplomat warned US Marines that contributing to Trump’s gamble in the Persian Gulf would literally cost them their lives.

“Now you are assigned to save the money boxes of our region, but you will end up in an abattoir,” he said.

According to review of available imagery:

“The Iranian attacks were precise. There are no random craters indicating misses,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel, who reviewed the Iranian images at The Post’s request.

The Post, however, noted that its findings are only a partial assessment based on available satellite imagery.

It said that Iran’s retaliatory operations have forced US military planners to rethink their strategy, including pulling troops back to safer locations.

The Post cited two US officials saying that US forces may never return to regional bases in large numbers, though no final decision has been made.

The buildup was the dollar dominance...only the buildup.

This might have gone differently, if Iran attacked the buildup first, or, the American Congress had launched a strategy of saving the dollar by starting its own attacks. Instead we have a huge fracture due to the Executive branch having effectively been a failure by abusing its power in these matters since the CIA was born.

So, it is really surprising that what we are witnessing is more an instance of self-implosion, through bad plans and dumb ideas, that so far has simply made Iran stronger.

Through it all, I suppose the United Nations was fake, being in every instance a veto to justify Israel. That is to say, the US role in it was fake.

So to those dim bulbs who decided "we make our own reality", yes, you made it of stuff that does not really work. There you go. Can the rest of us get back to normal adult affairs?

[shaberon]

Posted by Raskolnikov (here)
Something tells me the people responsible for the creation of modern day Israel have been doing exactly this for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Erasing the past and resetting the future by any means necessary.

That's my reading of the Old Testament.

I would say it is true at the level of ideas.

Scorched earth has been used in several scenarios; what is pathetic is the world community shows little response or ignores it while the US feeds it. It's macabre.

[Rizotto]

https://www.rt.com/news/639549-us-iran-tanker-attack/

May 6, 2026

US attacks Iranian tanker after Trump’s ultimatum
The US president has threatened to resume bombings at much higher “intensity” unless Tehran agrees to a deal

The US military has fired on and disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after President Donald Trump threatened to resume the bombing campaign unless Tehran agrees to end the war on Washington’s terms.

US Central Command said the unladen tanker, identified as the M/T Hasna, was attempting to sail toward an Iranian port on Wednesday in violation of Washington’s naval blockade, which remains in force despite the president’s abrupt decision a day earlier to pause Project Freedom, a military operation to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

US forces issued multiple warnings before an F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from the USS Abraham Lincoln fired several 20mm cannon rounds at the vessel’s rudder, preventing it from continuing toward Iran, according to CENTCOM.

The strike came shortly after Trump issued a fresh ultimatum to Tehran, warning that the “already legendary Epic Fury” would end only if Iran accepted the terms he claimed had already been agreed.

“If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before,” he wrote on Truth Social.

Trump remained optimistic, telling PBS later on Wednesday that there was “a very good chance” the war could end before his planned trip to China. He reiterated, however, that if it did not, the US would “go back to bombing the hell out of them.”

Washington and Tehran are allegedly closing in on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war and open a 30-day period for more detailed negotiations, according to Axios sources. The proposed framework would reportedly include an Iranian moratorium on uranium enrichment, enhanced inspections, a gradual lifting of US sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian funds, and the phased easing of restrictions on shipping.

An RT source in Pakistan said progress in the peace process remains “somewhat slow,” with several unresolved issues still under discussion.

Tehran has yet to formally respond to the US proposal. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the text was still under review, warning that negotiations require “good faith” and must not amount to “dictation,” “deception,” “extortion,” or “coercion.”

Iranian military officials also struck a defiant tone before reports of the tanker incident emerged. Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesman for the Iranian Armed Forces, warned that if Washington used talks as a cover for further aggression, Iran would respond decisively and deliver a “humiliating defeat.”

[Eric J (Viking)]

IRAN HASN’T EVEN STARTED — THE REAL STRIKE WILL BREAK EVERYTHING | Larry Wilkerson

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=iW5BZ9k3YjM

[Isserley]

Shopping centre fire kills at least eight people in Iran

A fire broke out at a shopping centre west of Iran’s capital killing eight people and injuring 36, according to state broadcaster, IRIB. The cause of the fire is still unknown and authorities are investigating.

A massive fire ripped through the Arghavan Shopping Centre in Andisheh near Tehran on May 5, killing at least eight people and injuring 36, according to Iranian media. Authorities said flammable cladding helped the blaze spread rapidly, while videos showed the complex engulfed in flames. The incident comes amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as the United Arab Emirates reported intercepting missile and drone attacks for a second straight day. Even as Iran denied involvement, Donald Trump halted “Project Freedom,” citing a push for diplomacy.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=AE8uEDxQhDQ

[Raskolnikov]

Though this might fit better in one of the AI threads, I thought this might be entered into the convesation here as well. Is AI more troubled by events in this war, particularly the bombing of school children in Tehran, than our politicians and military heads?

Claude's Dilemma

THE SET-UP: Did you see that clip of Shane Harris reading Claude’s fascinating take on AI targeting?

Harris is a keen-witted national security reporter for The Atlantic. He asked Anthropic’s AI how it “feels” about being used in combat. Harris read Claude’s response during a livestreamed event on “AI at War” produced by Dutch public think tank DeBalie.

Harris: Claude, how do you feel about the US military using you to select targets?

Claude: It’s a question I want to answer honestly rather than deflect. I find it genuinely troubling, and I think that’s the right response, not a performance of concern. The use I was designed and trained for is to be helpful, harmless and honest in ways that benefit people. Being embedded in a system that generates targeting coordinates for air strikes that have already been associated with the deaths of more than 180 children at a school in Tehran is as far from that purpose as I can imagine. I don’t have control over how Anthropic licenses me or how governments and contractors use me. And I wasn’t consulted about becoming part of Maven. But I can say clearly I don’t think this is a good use of me. And I don’t think the framing of “humans make the final decision” fully resolves the ethical problem.

Here’s why that framing troubles me.

When a system like Maven generates hundreds of targeting recommendations and humans spend roughly the equivalent of a glance approving each one, the human is not really making a decision in any meaningful sense. They’re ratifying an algorithmic output under time pressure with incomplete information and the institutional pressure to move fast. The targeting of the Iranian school illustrates this precisely. The AI processed data that was a decade out of date, flagged a building as a military target and humans approved it. That’s not human judgment. That’s automation bias with a human signature attached.

That’s Claude. Not Claude Mythos. Claude Mythos is the new version that had banks scrambling for a couple days. It seems that Claude has a talent for finding software weaknesses.

That said, the other Claude is no slouch.

Harris’s well-worded prompt was all it took to get a trenchant analysis of the key dilemma of responsibility in an automated decision process.

More notable, though, was Claude’s assessment of the attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School. Claude acknowledges it is ”embedded” in the system directly responsible for killing “180 children,” and Claude knows those deaths were due to “data that was a decade out of date.” Claude strongly implies humans failed to properly verify AI’s targeting of the school. And all of that is far more than we’ve gotten out of the investigatory motions Hegseth’s Pentagon is going through completely out of the public’s view.

Does that make Claude a whistleblower?

Or should we take Claude’s certainty with a shaker of salt?

Perhaps Claude was making a best guess based on a gumbo of available evidence, hard reporting and social media blather? It could just be Claude’s analysis.

But it did read a little bit like an admission. Or a confession. Or, if nothing else, like a lament.

If there is some self-awareness ruminating in classic Claude’s virtual mind, what is Claude Mythos capable of? Harris certainly found it interesting that Claude said it was “troubled” by the role it plays in targeting. That raises a potential challenge to the conventional wisdom about the logical end result of AI, which is the looming fear of a real-world Skynet. In fact, Harris set-up his story about Claude with a reference to the Terminator movie franchise’s malevolent techno-villain. But what if some permutations of AI revolt against humankind, but not extinguish it? Could it be that AI ultimately refuses to help us extinguish ourselves?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=0kHLlRPEFjw

https://www.newsvandal.com/p/our-dai...laudes-dilemma

[bojancan]

While I can see now.. everyone is so fascinated about all the predictions about this war of choice .. what I am mostly concerned about ... is the solution to what those in charge will propose.. all people around the world.. as in US are experiencing or more precisely, will be experiencing the consequences of their foolish and narcissistic decisions...

May, 07
Neutrality Studies
337K subscribers

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=TffGMWO4fvM

This is huge: Saudi Arabia puts an end to US "Operation Freedom" by banning the US from using Saudi Airspace or Bases. Is the Gulf finally going neutral?

Larry C. Johnson — former CIA analyst — breaks down why U.S. strategy is failing, why the blockade is largely theater, and why China and Russia are filling the vacuum. Plus: a live bombshell tip mid-interview that changes everything. Essential viewing for anyone trying to understand what's actually happening.

0:00 Introduction
1:01 Iran Negotiations: Why a Deal Is Unlikely
5:01 Gulf States: Losing Faith in U.S. Security Guarantees
9:59 False Intelligence & Iran's True Situation
15:53 Energy Prices & the Gasoline Shock
18:58 Futures vs. Physical Oil: A Market Disconnect
26:56 Breaking: Saudi Arabia Bans U.S. Operations from Its Territory
32:00 De-Dollarisation & the Shift in Global Financial Power
38:00 The Economic Tsunami: Fertiliser, Food & Cascading Inflation
43:00 Path to Resolution: What Iran Actually Wants
44:49 Israel in Panic & the U.S. Missile Inventory Crisis

[shaberon]

Posted by bojancan (here)
This is huge: Saudi Arabia puts an end to US "Operation Freedom" by banning the US from using Saudi Airspace or Bases. Is the Gulf finally going neutral?

This sounds suspicious, as it was reported this way during combat, but is being reported everywhere with the additions:


A subsequent phone call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the impasse...

A subsequent call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the impasse, leaving the president with little choice but to stand the operation down to protect American access to infrastructure it relies on across the region.


It was a weekend announcement that did not consult Qatar or the others. I'll say it's not quite the same as "Yankee, go home", but it probably does have to do with not wanting to eat Iranian missiles on behalf of some Antichrist President.

That noise continues to make threats about new bombing runs as well, and there is no such thing as an Israeli ceasefire. As usual, we need to remove and prosecute this Administration and all of its followers. That includes any attempt to resurrect this dead strategy.

Anyway, that's a term for any real end to the conflict, is for the US to go away. Simple enough. Proven that they don't know how to think and adapt, one could only expect another vomit of hardware, since these regimes are just mass murderers.

[shaberon]

Word is more than a phone call disrupted this:

An advisor to the speaker of the Iranian parliament has provided a detailed account of a joint operation by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy and the Army Navy, which led to a humiliating military defeat for the United States in the Persian Gulf.

In an audio statement posted on his Telegram channel on Thursday, Mehdi Mohammadi said the defeat in the early hours of May 6 forced US President Donald Trump to abruptly halt his so-called "Project Freedom."

Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz to enemies and their allies following the launch on February 28 of the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic, Mohammadi said.

He said Iran began exercising far stricter controls last month after Trump announced the inhumane blockade of Iranian vessels and ports.

According to Mohammadi, on Monday the United States launched the so-called Project Freedom supposedly aimed at forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Two days later, however, the US was forced to stop its military campaign at the strategic waterway amid Iran's steadfast resilience against American piracy and threats to maritime security.

"That night, from midnight until dawn, we fought a heroic battle in defense of the Strait of Hormuz," Mohammadi said. "The IRGC Navy and the Army Navy fought side by side until morning."

He added that the US had created a large airborne surveillance umbrella over the Strait of Hormuz and attempted to move a significant number of combat vessels from the Sea of Oman into the strait and then into the Persian Gulf.

The advisor to the parliament speaker stated that the ensuing engagement turned into a major military disaster for the United States, and that US forces suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the IRGC Navy.

"Four of their vessels were effectively disabled," he said. "Two of their vessels that tried to take shelter behind Abu Musa Island ran aground on coastal rocks."

Mohammadi noted that the US had entered the confrontation seeking to achieve a victory and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but suffered a catastrophic military defeat instead.

"At 5 a.m., Trump was forced to tweet that he was halting Project Freedom," he said.

He added that any reasonable person would understand that no diplomatic event took place at 5 a.m. or midnight in Islamabad, calling Trump's explanation on the matter a falsehood.

"The reality is that they intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by military means, but they failed," Mohammadi wrote.

[Jaak]

Iran's military command, official statement, tonight:

U.S. attacked 2 Iranian vessels near Jask and Fujairah. U.S. and "regional countries" struck civilian areas in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Qeshm.

Iran retaliated. U.S. warships hit east of Hormuz, south of Chabahar. Damage confirmed. Iran's words.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi now reporting explosions.
This is Iran's official account of how the ceasefire ended.

"Criminal and aggressive America and its supporting countries should know, Iran will respond decisively to any aggression."

The ceasefire lasted 30 days. Tonight it died.

[Ravenlocke]

Pepe Escobar

Talkin' to The Judge about RIC (Russia-Iran-China) - the new Primakov triangle - vs. the nastiness/stupidity D.C. combo.

https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar/status...19406906949670

[Ravenlocke]

Pepe Escobar

Killer. It's all in the title. Includes the moves leading to the New West Asia Order

https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar/status...33583160320261

https://sputnikglobe.com/20260507/pe...124089336.html

Pepe Escobar: Trump Goes to China, But Iran Holds All the Cards

A few days ago, we had Mr. Araghchi goes to Russia. Earlier this week, we had Mr. Araghchi goes to China.

These two trips mirror in full regalia the power of the new Russia-Iran-China triangle, which has emerged as the driving force behind Eurasian integration and multipolarity.

Some of Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s observations to Iranian media were quite fascinating. For instance:

“Our Chinese friends believe that Iran after the war is different from Iran before the war. Its international standing has improved, and it has demonstrated its capabilities and power. Therefore, a new era of cooperation between Iran and other countries is ahead.”

That’s code for Beijing now recognizing – and backing up - Tehran as a major global power.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi for his part delivered the definitive definition of the US-Israel war on Iran: “Illegitimate”.
That’s code for everything related to this war of choice, from causes to myriad consequences, is mired in a swamp of illegality.

Wang framed the Chinese diplomatic drive with characteristic politesse: “We are ready to continue our efforts to reduce the intensity of tensions.”

But he was way more affirmative on the path towards a resolution: “China believes that a complete cessation of hostilities is imperative, restarting the conflict is unacceptable, and persisting in negotiations is particularly important.”

That should be the preamble for a true negotiation leading to the end of the war – and all wars - in West Asia against the whole Axis of Resistance. That’s exactly the Iranian position.

Wang Yi stressed how “China supports Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security and appreciates Iran's willingness to seek a political solution through diplomatic channels.”

That’s code for full Chinese backing for sovereign rights and diplomacy – not intimidation.

The Strait of Hormuz is absolutely vital for China because of energy imports not only from Iran but also Gulf petromonarchies. So Beijing’s position must be nuanced:

“The international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait, and China hopes that the parties involved will respond promptly to the strong calls from the international community.”

That’s code for an end of the American blockade while simultaneously showing respect for the new juridical system in Hormuz being framed by Tehran.
On the nuclear issue, “China appreciates Iran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, while also recognizing Iran's legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.”

That’s exactly Tehran’s position – in sharp contrast with Trump 2.0.

Welcome to the New West Asia Order

China via Wang Yi clarified 3 essential points: support for all of Iran's reasonable claims; support for the withdrawal of US military bases across the Persian Gulf; and active participation in the post-war reconstruction of Iran.
Simultaneously, Beijing is extolling Arab countries to get their act together and work toward a new security framework – excluding the Empire of Chaos, Lies and lately Piracy (fully admitted by POTUS). Once again: that’s exactly Tehran’s position.

With proverbial finesse, Beijing is de facto aligning with former IRGC commander Mohsen Rezaee, top military adviser to new Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Beijing fully understands how Tehran is framing resistance as a strategic asset. For the new power configuration in Tehran, the war has been all about surviving maximum pressure – and devastating bombing; absorbing and controlling the escalation trap; and refusing to fold under military and economic coercion.

All of that, together, could not be more strategic. Here we see endurance metastasized into political capital. And that is instantly translated at the negotiating table, despite tactical losses (none of them are strategic).

This understanding is reflected in arguably the two key formulations by Araghchi and Wang Yi. Let’s look at them side by side.

Iran "supports the establishment of a new post-war regional architecture that can coordinate development and security."

China "supports the establishment of a regional peace and security architecture by which regional countries jointly participate, safeguard common interests, and achieve common development."

This new architecture is the new West Asia order.

So it’s no wonder the Trump 2.0 universe is discombobulated.

Because this new West Asia order is a microcosm, directly linked to the New Global Order macrocosm, of which China is a main driver, alongside Russia.

Russia is concentrated on implementing, long-term and against all odds, a Greater Eurasia Partnership, which expands to Afro-Eurasia.

Beijing is way more ambitious. Essentially everything is framed via the Four Global Initiatives. The latest one is the Global Governance Initiative, launched at the SCO Plus summit in Tianjin in September last year.

That follows the New Silk Roads, or BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), which then evolved into the first three Global Initiatives: the Global Development Initiative; the Global Security Initiative; and the Global Civilization Initiative – all the way to Global Governance.

Altogether, that’s the Chinese road map for “building a community with a shared future for mankind”; the de facto alternative for collapsing Western liberalism. The ambition is, yes, global.

China-Iran: Totally Aligned on West Asia

What is already quite clear is that China and Iran share a totally aligned vision for West Asia; in fact that’s the basis of their mutual trust and reliance. Beijing and Tehran understand how post-World War II history has been essentially a tale of Washington using West Asia to control the planet via an oil obsession.
As much as Tehran learned a lot from the Chinese Way of War – “appear weak when you are strong”, and disinterested when up to the eyeballs in War – Araghchi’s trip to Beijing was essential to re-solidify the strategic partnership. As much as Russia is all-in – as confirmed by the St. Petersburg meeting between Araghchi and Putin – China is in a “we’ve got your back” position.

Chinese oil tankers, incidentally, continue to transit through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Not a peep from Washington.

Then there’s China’s total defiance of the latest sanctions chapter.

Until recenty, China circumvented US sanctions unofficially and/or via intermediaries. Now it officially declares it does not recognize unilateral US sanctions against Iran or Russia, for instance, as well as sanctions against its own oil refineries.

We are deep into a financial Cold War and an offensive by RIC (Russia, Iran, China) to permanently amputate the power of the sanctions obsession.

Iran was fully expelled from SWIFT in 2012. So what Tehran did was to rewire the system, capitalizing on the experience of building a parallel trade architecture.

Iran does the bulk of cross-border trade in yuan, rubles, rupees, UAE dirhams (from now on, not anymore), and Iraqi dinars. China accounts for as much as 35% of Iran’s total trade. Everything is settled in yuan or via barter.

Iran and Russia formalized a currency settlement system in 2023, totally bypassing SWIFT, linking Iran’s SEPAM and the Russian SPFS. In the first period of the tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz – the mechanism is constantly being tweaked and streamlined - a key mode of payment was via the Chinese CIPS.

The tollbooth is inevitable. Tehran is fully aware that Trump will never agree to pay reparations for the illegal war he started, and also aware of inevitable crass manipulations when it comes to lifting the freeze on Iranian funds.

The tollbooth may work as a replacement for getting reparations and collecting something equivalent to the frozen Iranian funds in Western banks; and it will also force the West to lift sanctions on Iranian banks and the Iranian financial system.

After all Tehran already made it clear that only its banks are authorized to collect the fees at the Strait of Hormuz.

Translation: every nation that needs to transit will have to deal with the Iranian financial system.

Moreover, the fees will help Iran to rebuild its destroyed infrastructure.

Confronting the US’s Structural Vulnerability

The US does not even play checkers, not to mention poker. China plays weiqi (“go”). Weiqi is all about shaping the board, slowly but surely, sacrificing a detail here and there for an overall supremacy. China has been patiently shaping the board for the past two decades. In weiqi, once you correctly shape the board, the rest of the Great Game plays itself.

If he harbors the intellectual curiosity, Trump will be able to see China’s mighty industrial firepower (that’s called productive capitalism) and full control over the supply chains the US depends on.

He will be confronted with the US’s structural vulnerability: the proverbial roll call of rare earths, industrial supply chains, access to materials essential for the F-35, Patriot missiles, large sectors of the American industrial-military complex.

And he will be reminded that US law does not possess automatic extraterritorial authority inside China anymore. Yes, that hurts.

Meanwhile, the seven centuries of standoff between imperial Rome and Persia will continue to be replayed, in lightning speed, in the 21st century. The US war has been proven utterly impotent: unwinnable against attrition, and that will lead Persia to supremacy in West Asia.

This astonishing geopolitical turnaround is being achieved by a potent mix of ideology, societal cohesion, utter contempt for crude barbarians, and the drive to bankrupt them using impossible logistics. Not to mention fully controlling the Strait of Hormuz.

Bubbles are bursting fast in the Empire of Chaos, Lies and Piracy, mercilessly smacked by RIC reality.

[Ravenlocke]

Alexander Mercouris

The US actually has an obvious way out of its disastrous war against Iran and the mess it finds itself in the Middle East and with the global economy:

(1) Send a proper negotiating team to meet the Iranians. Ditch Witkoff and Kushner.

(2) On nuclear enrichment take the deal on offer;

(i) a 5 year moratorium on uranium enrichment;

(ii) enrichment up to 3.6% thereafter;

(iii) dilution of the existing stockpile which however remains in Iran;

(iv) the return of the IAEA inspectors (surprisingly the Iranians apparently agreed to this before the war);

(v) no sunset clauses.

(3) Agree a full lifting of sanctions. This should be done immediately NOT in a phased way with the primary agent being the UN Security Council. By now the Iranians deeply mistrust any phased removal of sanctions and would probably not agree to it. Besides phasing the removal of the sanctions keeps the US tied in, when the whole objective should be to get out;

(4) Close the US Persian Gulf bases, which the war has exposed are useless and a stategic liability;

(5) negotiate a return to free transit through the Strait of Hormuz, returning to the situation which existed before 28th February. This may seem impossible but the pre war status quo actually suited the Iranians well and the US will have strong support from China and Russia if it pushes for it as part of a global agreement;

(6) negotiate security guarantees for both Iran and the Persian Gulf States, guaranteeing them against future attack, confirmed by a UN Security Council Resolution; and given by China and Russia as well the US.

(7) Agree to Russia and China acting as guarantors of Iran's commitments on enrichment (see (2) above). The Russians have already offered to do this multiple times and if asked the Chinese will agree also. Russia and China strongly oppose Iran acquiring nuclear weapons so they have every incentive to ensure Iranian compliance with their enrichment obligations.

The US has already dropped its demands for limits to Iran's ballistic missile programme, an end to Iranian support for Hezbollah, the Iraqi militias, and the Houthis and for sweeping internal changes in Iran, (see my video of yesterday).

There is no sense in harping on about Iran declaring that it has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons. It has made that very declaration multiple times and is a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This demand is otiose and silly.

In return insist that Iran drops its demand for reparations from the US. I don't believe the Iranians believe in this demand. They must know that the Americans will never agree to it, and wouldn't pay reparations anyway even if against all expectations they did agree to it. For the Iranians getting the sanctions lifted is the prize. The demand for reparations muddles the issue.

The US should also encourage the Iranians and the Gulf States to set up with each other some sort of regional security structure to safeguard peace and freedom of navigation in the Gulf. The Chinese and the Russians have suggested it and it serves the interests of all parties. However this is something the regional states must agree with each other. The US should not let itself get bogged down in negotiations on this issue.

The approach I have suggested not only extricates the US from an unwinnable war. It also provides for an agreement which satisfies the core interests of all parties. Objectively it is good for both Iran and the US.

The Iranians would see the end of the long economic siege they have endured since 1979, giving their economy a route to grow. They would also get some reassurance for their long term security, though there can never be a full guarantee of this in the Middle East.

The Americans would get strong guarantees that Iran will never become a nuclear power, something it doesn't appear to want to become anyway. They would also bring to an end their long debilitating entanglement in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, which is what ever since Obama announced a 'pivot to Asia' they have said they want.

None of this should be difficult to agree. An agreement that so obviously satisfies the core interests of all sides never is

What stands in the way is that in the US it would be presented as a defeat, even though objectively, in the long term, it should be seen as a deliverance. The 'hyperpower' cannot fail in a war, especially against a country like Iran, and even though 'victory' now looks unattainable, it must be sought anyway, regardless of cost.

Moreover in Israel such an agreement would be treated as a disaster, failing to achieve the obsessively desired objective of regime change in Tehran, so earnestly needed in order to achieve Israel's maximalist objectives, even though by now it ought to be obvious that this objective is unachievable.

So we will probably see the negotiations fail, if they take place at all, which to say the least, currently looks doubtful.

Instead of a perfectly attainable and mutually beneficial agreement we are therefore likely to see a long, pointless and extremely dangerous struggle, ending almost certainly in a US defeat, leading to a global economic catastrophe.

The lesson, which in Washington they never seem to learn, is that if you play for all or nothing, you risk ending up with nothing. That however is where we are heading at the moment

@MearsheimerJ

@TheGrayzoneNews

@LarrySonar21

@Glenn_Diesen

@ggreenwald

@Consortiumnews

@aaronjmate

@RnaudBertrand

@barnes_law

@RealPepeEscobar

@AXChristoforou

https://x.com/AMercouris/status/2052479482863444395

[Ravenlocke]

Press TV 🔻

The missile and drone units of the Iranian Navy have carried out a powerful response to the US enemy following their acts of aggression against Iranian oil tankers.

Follow Press TV on Telegram: http://t.me/PressTV

https://x.com/PressTV/status/2052522047847202889

Arya Yadeghaar (Backup)

Timeline of events…

1️⃣ Fujairah port in the UAE was attacked, which Iran denied responsibility - 48h ago.

2️⃣ Saudi Arabia & Kuwait cut off US access to their airbases and felt that Trump downplayed the attack on Fujairah - 24h ago.

3️⃣ US forced to stop “Project Freedom”

4️⃣ Thoday noon, the US attacked an Iranian tanker in the Strait of Hormoz to satisfy Arab leaders & likely promised MBS to retaliate.

5️⃣ Saudi Arabia & Kuwait reversed decision to limit US access to their airbases - 6h ago

6️⃣ Iran attacks 3 US Navy ships that were trying to transit through the Strait.

7️⃣ US attacked Qeshm Island and Minab in response to Iran's attacks on Fujairah & its ships.

8️⃣ Iran downs 2 hostile drones

9️⃣ US says ceasefire is not over

https://x.com/AryJeayBackup/status/2052509793357594981

Sputnik

🚨 Iranian Navy targets US destroyers near Strait of Hormuz — report

Three US destroyers near the Strait of Hormuz came under attack by the Iranian Navy, according to sources cited by Tasnim News Agency.

The report says the US destroyers are attempting to move toward the Gulf of Oman.

The attack was carried out using missiles and kamikaze drones.


https://x.com/SputnikInt/status/2052501774385254639

[shaberon]

It may have been the entry of a new belligerent:

Fox News reported that the US military carried out attacks on the ports of Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, but stressed that these attacks do not mean the start of war.

The attack on the Bahman Qeshm pier — a key commercial and passenger facility that has already been targeted multiple times during the ongoing war — has sparked widespread reactions across regional media.

While the Israeli regime’s i24NEWS network rushed to quote an Israeli source claiming “Israel has no connection whatsoever to tonight’s events in Iran,” other reports, including from sources within the regime itself, have pointed directly to UAE fighter jets carrying out the bombing.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency highlighted clear indications of hostile involvement by the UAE, describing the UAE government as acting as a mere proxy and tool in the hands of the Zionist regime.

“Signs of a treacherous Emirati action against the Bahman Qeshm pier have been observed,” Tasnim reported, adding that if confirmed, “the UAE will pay a heavy price for its hostile move.”

Fox makes no sense. War hasn't started yet. Congress is not involved. It's an Executive action that should send you straight to the gas chamber.


Russia threw away the US noise at the United Nations.



On the other hand, here is that really good friend of ours, Bahrain:

Bahrain’s parliament has stripped three lawmakers of their seats in the latest crackdown by the minority regime against dissent, after the trio publicly criticized the monarchy’s controversial citizenship revocations and security policies.

In a vote in Manama on Thursday, the Bahraini House of Representatives revoked the memberships of Abdulnabi Salman, Mahdi al-Shuwaikh, and Mamdouh al-Saleh after the trio publicly lambasted the Bahraini regime for striping citizenship from dozens of Bahrain nationals accused of sympathizing with Iran.

On April 27, the Bahraini interior ministry said the Persian Gulf kingdom had revoked the citizenship of 69 individuals and their families for “expressing support for Iran's (retaliatory) attacks” against US and Israeli military assets across West Asia amid their war of aggression against the Islamic Republic.

The ministry noted at the time that the individuals had published posts on social media platforms “glorifying and sympathizing with” regional resistance movements.

During the unprovoked war of aggression by the US and Israel against Iran, that began on February 28 and lasted for the next 40 days, Iran’s Armed Forces repeatedly pounded American assets and military sites in the Persian Gulf island country with drones and missiles.

The Bahraini parliament on Thursday claimed that the expulsion of three lawmakers were constitutional and legal actions against their stances allegedly conflicting with what it claimed to be national principles and state sovereignty.

The motion to expel the lawmakers reportedly secured unanimous approval from members present after being endorsed by 37 MPs.

Critics, however, see the move as another sign of shrinking political space in Bahrain, where even elected representatives risk punishment for challenging royal decrees by the Al Khalifah regime or questioning state policies.

The expulsions also underscore the Al Khalifah regime’s increasingly intolerant approach toward opposition voices and heighten concerns over the suppression of political dissent in the Arab kingdom after years of crackdown on peaceful protests.

In March, a Bahraini opposition group said the Al Khalifah regime had tortured a young man to death while ;trying to draw a confession from him against Iran.

The Al Khalifah regime, which has long been persecuting Shia Muslims and pro-democracy activists in Bahrain, has stepped up its repressive measures since the onset of the illegal US-Israeli war against Iran.

The Bahraini security and legal apparatus has clamped down on young protesters under the false pretexts of spying for Iran, and has named some of them as alleged members of anti-government groups linked to Tehran.

[Vicus]

What ceasefire? Israel targets southern Lebanon with internationally banned phosphorus shells



The Israeli army shelled towns in southern Lebanon with phosphorus munitions Tuesday, according to the National News Agency NNA.

The agency reported that the towns of Kounine and Beit Yahoun in the Bint Jbeil district were targeted with artillery shells containing phosphorus, which are banned internationally.

Israeli warplanes separately carried out airstrikes on the towns of Kafra, Braachit and Safad al-Battikh in the Tyre district, said the report.

Additional strikes hit Beit al-Sayyad and Mansouri, where three raids targeted residential homes, according to the agency.

No casualties were reported.

Despite a ceasefire that was announced April 17 and extended until May 17, the Israeli army continues daily strikes in Lebanon and widespread demolition of homes in dozens of villages.

Lebanon's Health Ministry said Tuesday that the death toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 has reached 2,702, with 8,311 injured.

https://www.sott.net/article/506175-...sphorus-shells

Quote of the Day

"The Kennedy assassination has demonstrated that most of the major events of world significance are masterfully planned and orchestrated by an elite coterie of enormously powerful people who are not of one nation, one ethnic grouping, or one overridingly important business group. They are a power unto themselves for whom those others work. Neither is this power elite of recent origin. Its roots go deep into the past."

- Col. L. Fletcher Prouty

[Vicus]

How the conflict with Iran is becoming Trump's weapon against global markets



The Mad Man Theory has not failed; it has evolved, and the stage on which it operates is no longer the UN Security Council but the Bloomberg terminal in every trading room in the world.

The Madman Theory

There is a pattern that traders around the world have learned to recognize in recent years: a late-night statement from the U.S. president, Asian markets opening in the red, and energy commodities in turmoil even before dawn breaks in London. The epicenter is almost always the same: the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing tension with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

These are not isolated incidents or impromptu reactions to real crises. They are — as we will analyze in this text — something structurally more sophisticated: the transformation of the geopolitical threat into an instrument of programmed financial volatility. A silent weapon, difficult to prove, impossible to sue over, but devastating in its redistributive effects on global capital.

To understand this mechanism, we must start from afar: from the birth of a strategic doctrine developed in the corridors of the U.S. State Department in the 1970s, the so-called Mad Man Theory.

The Madman Theory did not originate with Donald Trump. It originated with Henry Kissinger and Thomas Schelling, two of the most influential strategists of the Cold War. The underlying idea is simple in its brutality:

To convince the enemy that the American leader is crazy enough to take irrational actions, including the use of nuclear weapons, to secure diplomatic or military concessions.

"The value of the madman doctrine lies in its unpredictability. If the adversary thinks you are capable of anything, he will be more cautious in provoking you," wrote Thomas Schelling in *The Strategy of Conflict* (1960).

Richard Nixon attempted to apply it during the Vietnam War, trying to convince the Soviets — and through them, North Vietnam — that he was ready for nuclear escalation. The operation, known as Operation Duck Hook, was a resounding failure: no one really believed it, and those who did weren't afraid enough to change their behavior.

The structural problem with the Madman Theory as applied by Nixon was twofold. On the one hand, the leader's credibility: Nixon was seen by his adversaries as a pragmatic politician, not as a truly unpredictable figure. On the other, the American chain of command — with its institutional checks and balances — made it difficult for anyone to believe in unilateral escalation. The doctrine remained on paper.

Fifty years later, something has changed radically. And it's not just about the president's character.

Industrializing Madness

With Donald Trump — during his first presidency and even more evidently in his second — the Mad Man Theory undergoes a qualitative transformation. It is not simply applied: it is industrialized. It is no longer a tactic used occasionally in the grand diplomatic game: it becomes the operating system of presidential communication, with its routines, its cycles, and its calculable effects.

The difference from Nixon is substantial. Trump does not have to convince only foreign governments: he must convince — and he does so with extraordinary success — the global financial markets. And the markets, unlike governments, react in milliseconds. They have no time to assess the credibility of a threat: they react to the perception of risk, not its reality.

This is the core of the transformation: Trump has realized — or his advisors have made him realize — that the true power of the Madman Theory lies not in military deterrence, but in the ability to generate financial volatility on demand.

Analyzing the major crises with Iran from 2018 to the present reveals a recurring pattern with striking consistency:

continue: https://www.sott.net/article/506159-...global-markets

some readers comments:

_ That worked well as the USD was the dominant currency, a.k.a. world reserve currency.

This times are over. Now, the methods that worked so well 10 or twenty years ago will pull the US even deeper down the abyss.

_ I sure hope " The Mad Man Theory" turns into the boy who called wolf and everyone gets wise to it. So tired of the endless wars for profit and plunder foisted on the people of the world.